As India comes to terms with the nature of the
deceit that it has been witness to with regards to a planned and agreed upon
de-escalation, it is also time to take an open-eyed stock of the Indo-China
relationship. What happened is against any rule book of modern warfare; it seems
like the medieval age. 20 Indian soldiers killed in action on the Line of
Actual Control (LAC) on the night of 15/ 16 June 2020, without a single bullet
being fired. This is even more problematic, as this happened when both sides
had agreed to de-escalate, during the Corps Commander level talks on 06 June
2020, in the spirit of the 1993 Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity
(AMPT) on the LAC. An analysis of the available facts of that night reveals
that the entire sub-tactical action at Patrol Point 14 in the Galwan valley was
pre-meditated deceit by the PLA; the numbers of the troops, the actions/
events, & the improvised lethal weapons employed by the PLA troops are testimony
to the deceit. From the open source satellite pictures available in the media,
it can be surmised that China did not expect to go to war, as their entire LoC
in the Galwan valley were out in the open; sitting ducks for any aerial attack.
The sinister plan was thus to agree upon de-escalation, while at the same time
quietly and unobtrusively occupy a vantage position in the Galwan valley so as
to be able to dominate the Indian Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road and
secondly, to test the Indian response in terms of strength & speed, as also
the Indian capability and will to defend the LAC. The Indian response was not
found wanting, and that is the reason for China to immediately call for
maintaining peace along the LAC. However, the price paid for the courageous
response was too high, loss of 20 soldiers, including the Commanding officer of
an Infantry battalion.
These Chinese actions in effect have shattered the
trustworthiness of the Chinese word in terms of agreements/ treaties, and have also
effectively nullified the AMPT, 1993. It is evident that this sub tactical
action of the PLA was part of an operational plan, which will now require a
strategic rethink on India’s part; the entire nation is deeply traumatised by
the death of our brave soldiers, and is agonising about our bi-lateral
relations with China. Even as I type this, I can hear the song, “Aey
mere watan ke logo…” being played on the public address system in our
housing society. How did this happen?
Xi Jinping is the paramount leader in China, who
effectively heads the three main power centres, besides others, – President of the People’s Republic of China
(PRC); General Secretary of the Central Committee of the all powerful and
omnipresent Communist Party of China (CPC); and as the Chairman of the PRC Central
Military Commission. It is thus very hard to imagine that the events that
unfolded at four separate locations on the LAC in May 2020, were without his knowledge
or concurrence. All this happened within about seven months of his informal
meeting with PM Modi at Mamallpuram on 12 Oct 2019; imagine meeting the PM of
India, in India; re-iterating a desire for peace and tranquillity along the LAC
and thereafter planning ‘salami slicing’ of his land. Xi is in my view, wholly
culpable & responsible for the deceit that was unleashed by the PLA, and is
thus unworthy of our trust.
India is an open & free society and a vibrant
parliamentary democracy, where every action of the govt is subject to checks
and balances, as well open to questioning by the opposition, both inside and
outside the parliament. The Indian side has made public the number of soldiers
killed in action, whereas the Chinese have not even publicly acknowledged the numbers
killed, let alone names of their dead. With this dastardly and deceitful act, it
is pretty evident that we are now in a state of no war no peace, an unstable
situation that can go out of control at the slightest mishandling. India and
China enjoyed relative peace, and no bloodshed, on the LAC for over 45 years.
What changed suddenly?
Both India and China thus far, were content to live
in peace even with an ambiguous, un-delineated and un-demarcated LAC. The 1993
AMPT facilitated building on other areas involving bi-lateral issues like trade,
investment; regional co-operation; and global engagements for both countries. This
arrangement worked well as long as China perceived that India did not have the
wherewithal or will to physically, diplomatically, or politically challenge any
of the Chinese national interests. China fiercely guarded its national
interests, even while it continued to take a position against India’s national
interests in international fora; Indo-Pak issues, Nuclear Suppliers Group
membership, permanent UNSC seat for India, etc. India on the other hand refrained
from speaking on issues that adversely impacted China; a very asymmetric relationship
between sovereign nations. China continued to build its border infrastructure
to safeguard its national interests. India commenced border infrastructure up
gradation projects very late. This changed with a change of govt in India in
2014.
Modi became PM & brought about a noticeable
change from the past, in terms of his governance style, both within the country
and in relationships with other countries. The Modi govt accelerated the pace
of infrastructure development, including border infrastructure. Externally, he
strengthened relationships with a large number of countries, including USA and
China, through a large number of foreign travels in his first term. He tried to
develop a personal relationship with Xi Jinping. Both were formally and
informally engaged with each other, giving an outward appearance of great
rapport. China continued to pursue its national interests, like earlier.
However, India under Modi had changed; it started to stand up for its own
national interests. Xi’s grand vision and dream project, the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), signifying China’s arrival as a great power was shunned by
Modi; India opted out of RCEP; India joined the Quad with the USA, Japan, &
Australia; India strengthened trade relationships with Vietnam; India attempted
to neutralise China’s ‘string of pearls’ initiatives; India strengthened the
shaping of an Indo-Pacific global narrative, etc. All these were understandably
not appreciated by a rising China. On 05 Aug 2019, India abrogated Article 370
and split the erstwhile state of J&K into two Union Territories (UT). The reframed
maps reflected the two new UTs. Aksai Chin is a part of Ladakh UT and the home
minister announced the same in the Lok Sabha. This drew adverse comments from
China, as their strategic highway linking Tibet with Xinkiang goes through Aksai
Chin.
The Corona pandemic and its seemingly irresponsible
handling by the Chinese, leading to the global pandemic and grave economic and
employment losses, were highlighted by nations around the world. Many nations
decided to punish China for this act of gross irresponsibility. There are
reports of growing discontent within China over the Corona handling, job
losses, economic woes, the state of investments in the BRI projects, etc. There
is a growing feeling that China’s 2020 external actions in the South China sea,
threats to Taiwan, South Korea, suppression of Hong Kong, unilateral change of
status quo on the LAC with India are visible signs of a perplexed leadership
trying to seed a narrative of nationalism amongst its own disillusioned
domestic audience.
This Galwan misadventure by the PLA has forced the
Modi govt to change track towards a more realistic and open eyed policy
response to the Chinese threat, which can only keep growing with time, as long
as we have claims and counter claims on our borders. Military talks are
continuing at the Maj Gen level. These are not likely to result in any
resolution. Talks have to be held at the politico-diplomatic level to bear any
fruit, but these too are not likely to yield any substantial benefits in the
short term, due to lack of trust. They can however prevent a full blown war, if
China agrees to restore the status quo ante on the LAC. Will China accede to
this demand? This has to be a mandatory condition for any further progress.
Our military has been mobilised and have taken up
positions to be ready and prepared, should the need arise. The restoration of
the status quo ante is very unlikely to happen in a hurry. Thus we can expect a
long drawn out stalemate and a very lengthy & heightened state of alert for
our troops that are tasked with safeguarding the LAC. India has its hands full
with the Corona pandemic, kick starting of the economy, unemployment and the
migrant labour issues. India wants peace but not at the cost of its self respect
or sovereignty – this has been made amply clear by the PM, on 17 Jun 2020. Now
that the 1993 AMPT is de facto null and void, the govt, and in turn the
military leadership, have hopefully clearly defined the rules of engagement for
the military. Soldiers should not be put in a war like situation, to defend own
territory, with their hands tied. The mistakes of Kargil and Sri Lanka should
not be repeated. News reports suggest that the PM has already cleared the
military to do what is needed under the circumstances. Now it is for the senior
military leadership to translate the political directive in to actionable
directives and orders for each formation on the ground, air and sea. The
military leadership is confident that the military would live up to the trust
placed in it.
This sub tactical engagement at Galwan will be
remembered for a long time, for the valour of the Indian soldier in general and
the Bihari troops in particular, and their courageous fight against a barbaric
and deceitful enemy, as also for teaching, once again, a valuable lesson to India;
sovereignty of the nation cannot be guaranteed, without the required capability
and the will to safeguard it, at all costs.
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