The Big Picture (HT, 09 Jan 2022) by Raghu Raman, the founding CEO of NATGRID, alludes to India’s burgeoning internal “half front”, which may prove to be our “Achille’s Heel”. The half front that he is referring to are the internal issues that are causing fissures and cracks in the hugely diverse Indian society, which in turn could be/ are being exploited by our adversaries. Terrorists, insurgents, disgruntled elements, proxy actors, etc are the means employed to achieve this end. Raghu Raman ends his article on a sombre note, stating, “if its expansion is not arrested immediately, and unless that happens, there is no way we can meaningfully address even one of our major threats – let alone two”. The two external threats to India are from China and Pakistan.
External Threats
China
and Pakistan are what they term themselves as, “iron brothers”, and thus it is
a given that they would support each other, directly or indirectly in any
conflict with India, forcing India to plan for a two-front war. Both these
adversaries are not in a classic conventional war with India, but have through
their actions, past and present, tied up a large number of Indian forces on the
northern and western borders. The Indian forces are employed in a stand-off
against the Chinese in the Ladakh region; in counter terrorism operations in
the Kashmir valley, and now increasingly in the Punjab region also to counter
narcotics, weapons, electronic and psychological warfare, which is primarily
aided and abetted by Pakistan. These standoffs contribute to increased economic
and human costs to maintain even the status quo on the borders; economic costs
that could have been more gainfully employed in bettering the lives of the
citizens.
Chinese Threat. Relative peace
prevailed on the Northern border with China, since 1987. This was shattered
during the COVID epidemic, 2020. A conflict at the Galwan valley on 15 Jun 2020
led to tragic loss of lives on both sides. The armies of both, India and China
have been in a military standoff in the Ladakh region since 2020. The two
countries have conducted 14 rounds of military-level talks to resolve the
standoff; some progress has been made but the stand-off continues, with both
sides focussing on building infrastructure to support the eventuality of war. India
has been a late entrant to building the needed infrastructure in the region, with
China being way ahead on this account. Latest reports indicate that China is
building a 500m bridge across the Pangong Tso, connecting the Northern and
Southern ends of the lake. This and other visible indicators from China make it
clear that war as a possibility cannot be ruled out completely. The Army
Chief re-iterated the Indian resolve to safeguard its territorial
integrity, on the eve of the Army day - 15 Jan 2022. He said, “We stand firm to
counter any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo along our borders.
Our response to such attempts has been swift, calibrated and decisive as was
seen when the situation so demanded”. The COAS also said that the Army had
instituted additional safeguards to prevent any further attempts at military
brinkmanship. The COAS further emphasised “that the differences in perceptions
and disputes are best resolved through established norms based on the principle
of equal and mutual security”. He further stressed that “our desire for peace
and tranquillity is born out of our inherent strength. It should not be
mistaken otherwise”.
Image Courtesy: Google Images
Pakistani Threat. Pakistan
is the other adversary that continues to persist with a policy of cross border,
state sponsored terrorism with India. The COAS stated that “our actions have
demonstrated our capability and willingness to strike at the source of
terrorism”. He was clear that “in the year gone by, the Indian Army has
resolutely executed its responsibilities and was steadfast in safeguarding the
security and territorial integrity of the nation”. “India’s active borders were
guarded with resolve and resilience” he mentioned. Commending the personnel of
the Army he stated that “our brave officers, JCOs, and soldiers, have faced
adversaries and adversity with courage and fortitude even to the extent to
laying down their lives in the highest traditions of the Indian Army”. He was
categorical in stating that “the Indian Army remains at a high state of
operational readiness to face ongoing and future challenges”, with the
strengthening of “institutional mechanisms and safeguards to counter
state-sponsored terrorism”, both along the borders and in the hinterland. He
was clear that “these mechanisms and safeguards have proven effective in
lowering the levels of violence”.
Indian Capability and Resolve. The
Army Chief’s clear message is that our army is ready and capable to tackle the
two-front external threat to the nation’s security. Actions over the past
couple of years have demonstrated that none of countries involved want a full
blown conventional war. However, war is always a possibility under such circumstances.
The assurance by the COAS is based on the preparedness and capability of the
army, when India is in a ‘sub conventional war situation’. The other defence
forces too have similar levels of preparedness and capability in this
situation. The country’s political leadership too has, through its words and
actions, shown resolve and political will, to face any such external threat to
our national security. This implies that the external threat is well understood,
and the nation also has the will to tackle it; the needed capability also
exists to counter any unforeseen situation that may arise in such a standoff.
This capability is being further enhanced, to deter the adversaries from
precipitating any situation, which may lead to war. However, building military
capability, especially in a largely arms import scenario, is an expensive and
time consuming process, besides other factors. Geo strategic considerations
have finally forced India to step up efforts towards self reliance in this
critical field, by encouraging participation by the private sector, and by
revamping the defence sector military industrial complex, through the
Atmanirbhar project. Induction of the LCA into the IAF; the indigenous
satellites & missiles; the 1000 drone swarm display on 29 Jan 2022 are some
of the positive indicators, on this account. However, external threats are not
the only worrisome aspect that has an impact on national security, at this
juncture.
Internal Dimensions
There
are internal issues that have an impact on national security, as these provide
fault lines to our external adversaries to exploit, to further their nefarious
tasks. Internal issues can lead to volatile situations. This happens with ease,
and much quicker, in the information era, with the widely distributed and accessible
technology as well as the global reach of social media platforms. Recent
examples of this kind of flare-up/ violence are epitomised in the BLM movement
violence across cities, and the Capitol Hill rioting in the USA, as well as the
violence at the Red fort in Delhi, while the country was celebrating Republic
day.
Human Security. Internal
issues can best be understood as ‘human security’ issues, a term introduced
into the international security dialogue following a 1994
Human Development Report by the UNDP. The report rightly brought out the
fact that “for too long, the concept of security has been shaped by the
potential for conflict between states. For too long, security has been equated
with the threats to a country's borders. For too long, nations have sought arms
to protect their security. For most people today, a feeling of insecurity
arises more from worries about daily life than from the dread of a cataclysmic
world event. Job security, income security, health security, environmental
security, and security from crime - these are the emerging concerns of human
security all over the world. The report further identified six main threats to
human security: unchecked population growth, disparities in economic
opportunities, migration processes, environmental degradation, drug
trafficking, and international terrorism.” A large number of these issues are
at play within India.
Indian News Headlines
Indian
news headlines these days are full of internal issues, be it the COVID
pandemic, sporadic disturbances due local issues, insurgents in the North East,
Maoist elements, drugs/ unaccounted wealth hauls, unemployment, economic
slowdown, feelings of insecurity/ exclusion, regionalism, and to top it all the
“divisive narratives” often led by our politicians, which tend to increase in
frequency and shrillness during the election season. Every issue, during
election rallies/ time is kosher for partisan politics. To score political
points over their opponents, politicians are unsparing of even the democratic
institutions that are the bedrock of democracy. This leads to a loss of trust
in the institutions and in turn in democracy, as well as creates an environment
of divisions within the society. To make matters worse, elections in India are
an ongoing feature, leading to no respite from the “divisive narratives” that
has become the bane of Indian politics.
A representative
sample of print media (HT) headlines of 14 Jan 2022 reflect some issues that
have a bearing on national security; “Be proactive but don’t panic, Modi tells
CMs”, “Third Minister quits UP cabinet in 3 days”, India-China military talks
fail to yield positive results”, “2.5 KG RDX, Ammo recovered in Gurdaspur”,
“Ludhiana court blast: NIA sleuths take over probe”, “Channi recites verse to
Modi long life”, “Army chief talks tough on China”, “2022 polls: It’s back to
divisive politics” and “India’s armed forces are apolitical: Ensure that they
remain so”. Of the nine headlines that are listed here, only two refer to an
external threat by China; the rest are all internal events that too have a direct
impact on our national security.
Globalisation
Globalisation
has increased economic liberalisation, trade, international supply chains,
financial flows and interdependence between nations. It has also led to the
increase in illegal flow of drugs, weapons, migrants, as also to increased
health and environmental issues. India is afflicted with most problems listed
above. India’s northern states are faced with illegal drugs/ weapons
challenges; cross border inspired/ supported terrorism in the Kashmir valley;
illegal immigration by Rohingyas, Bangladeshis leading to demographic and other
challenges, in the Eastern parts; COVID pandemic, besides health, affected the
economy and employment across the entire country. Thus national security is
rather complex, as besides military threats, there are threats to the economy,
terrorism, subversion, cyber threats, and biological threats that cause
pandemics, which besides impacting health, also adversely impact the economy.
Conclusion
Even
though the probability of a full blown war is low, the possibility always
exists. In such a scenario, it is the internal threats that gain prominence in
this globalised and interconnected world, with technology providing the means
to globalise local issues, as also to localise global issues. These issues are
in the non-military domain of the nation. Military forces are still relevant,
and the nation needs to have the capability and will to neutralise any external
threat. At the same time, it is equally important to ensure that
non-traditional security matters that impinge on national security, like
illegal drugs, weapons, divisive political narratives, poverty, terrorism,
insurgency, unemployment, etc do not create opportunities for external forces
to exploit. National security can only be ensured if all citizens feel secure
and ready to whole heartedly work towards countering the external threats. Military
power, good foreign relations, and alliances continue to be needed to secure
the nation from external threats; national unity and internal stability are the
foundational building blocks on which national security rests. Good governance,
rule of law, institutions and structures those are responsive to the citizen’s
needs create an environment that provide internal stability; these need
strengthening. Electoral and educational reforms that can help to shift the
focus on to the attitudes, identity, and well being of the citizen, who happens
to be the raison d’etre of this hugely diverse Indian democracy, can help
foster national unity, and bring about an end to divisive narratives, creating
a win-win situation for every citizen, and the country.
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