What is the present Ukraine crisis all about? What are the issues involved? As on date, there are divergent statements, from different leaders. The US is warning about the possibility of a “real” Russian invasion, and has lent credibility to its pronouncement by relocating its embassy operations from Kyiv to Lviv, in western Ukraine, as also warning its citizens of the same. The Indian embassy too has warned Indian citizens of the “uncertainties”, and has advised Indian citizens, whose presence is not required, to leave. The Russian President is insistent that Russia has no plans to invade Ukraine. He has stated, in a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, on 15 Feb 2022, “we want to resolve this issue now, right now or in the near future, through negotiations, peaceful means”. Meanwhile the German Chancellor emphasised that the crisis should be resolved peacefully, and without military conflict. He also reminded the Russians about the, oft repeated, consequences that Russia would have to face in case of a military conflict, which are painful economic sanctions that the US and its allies have threatened to impose on Russia. The US secretary of state and the Russian foreign minister are in touch, and have agreed to “stay in touch”. Besides the actors listed above, a lot of diplomatic activity has taken place, and is still taking place, in Europe, even at the highest levels, to find a peaceful resolution of the crisis. Considering the political/ diplomatic effort that has gone in, it is pretty evident that no country in the region wants war. What then is the crisis?
Russia had begun
moving troops and military equipment near the border with Ukraine, commencing
Oct 2021. By December 2021, “armour,
missiles and other heavy weaponry” was seen amassed/ moving towards
Ukraine, without any official communication about the same, as is required vide the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Vienna Document, 2011. By December, Russia
had amassed nearly 100,000 combat troops on the eastern border of Ukraine, as
also in Crimea. All this led US intelligence to surmise that Russia may be
planning an invasion of Ukraine in the early part of 2022. Subsequently,
another 30,000 troops, aircraft and missiles, including S-400s, were moved to the
North of Ukraine, in to Belarus. Russia claims that all these troop deployments
were only for exercise purposes, and categorically rules out the possibility of
invasion. As per Russians, some of these troops have already started returning
after completion of their exercises, but US is seeking verifiable proof of the
same. The Ukrainians too are wary of the Russian claim, and have also warned of the
upcoming naval drills in which Russian
ships exercising in the Black sea could block sea lanes with a view to hurt
the economy of Ukraine. The primary reason why Russia amassed troops on the
Ukrainian border can be gauged from the statements given out by the Russian leadership to withdraw the troops. There seem to be many other ongoing concerns of the Russians; it is more in the nature of a jigsaw puzzle. The picture will only be clear once the
jigsaw puzzle of security, political, economic, loss of influence, divergent world views, etc is
solved.
In mid
December 2021, Russia issued a set of demands to withdraw its troops from the
Ukrainian border. These demands include, ban on Ukraine’s entry to NATO,
reduction of NATO forces in Eastern Europe, and deployment of missile systems
near Russia’s borders. As expected, these were rejected by the US and its NATO
allies, and Russia was warned of military retaliation by the US and allies if
Ukraine was invaded, as well as, in Biden’s
own words, “severe consequences
-- economic consequences like none he's ever seen or ever have been seen," leading
to the present crisis. The demands all relate to the expansion of NATO in to
the erstwhile Russian sphere of influence.
NATO is a political and
military alliance of countries in Europe and North America, with the core
tasks of collective defence, crisis-management and cooperative security.
It was formed with 12 member countries, in 1949, which was expanded to 16
during the period, 1952 to 1982. The breakaway of the three Baltic countries in
1990, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 lay open the field for
the alliance to expand eastwards, with many of the East European states and former
Soviet Republics too joining the alliance, from 1999 onwards, taking the NATO
member state strength to the present 30. At the Bucharest NATO summit in April
2008, the alliance considered
but decided not to give the membership action plan (MAP) to Ukraine and
Georgia, due opposition to the move by France and Germany, owing to concerns expressed
by Russia over the alliance’s eastward expansion. However, NATO secretary
general told the press that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become members
of NATO.
Political
turmoil in Ukraine; the deposition of the pro-Russian President in early 2014 led
to Russia annexing
the southern peninsula of Crimea. Russia has since then been backing
separatists who occupy large swathes of eastern Ukraine. These rebels have
fought the Ukrainian military ever since, leading to loss of more than 14000
lives. This annexation of Crimea has not been given due recognition by the G-7
as well as most other countries, although Russia and its military are in
occupation of the same, since March 2014. These acts by Russia have thus hastened
the Ukrainian desire to integrate westwards for their security and economic
needs. To this end, Ukrainian President Poroshenko signed a constitutional
amendment in early 2019, which commits the country to becoming a member of
EU and NATO. His successor, President Zelenskiy, who assumed office on May 2020,
has stated that he would continue Kyiv’s “strategic course to achieve
full-fledged membership in the EU and NATO.”
Ukraine’s membership of the NATO can lead to a destabilising situation, which is best described in the question posed by Russian President Putin; “Let's imagine Ukraine is a NATO member and starts these military operations. Are we supposed to go to war with the NATO bloc? Has anyone given that any thought?” Also, there is no provision in the NATO charter to come to Ukraine’s rescue during the MAP phase, before being granted full membership. In addition there is some truth in the fact that NATO’s expansion eastwards has added to Russia’s growing insecurity; Georgia and Ukraine are both Russia bordering countries. Talking of security concerns, US Secretary of State Blinken has shown willingness to “bilaterally and together with Allies and partners, to continue a substantive exchange with Russia on mutual security concerns.” However, State Department spokesman Ned Price clarified that Blinken was also equally resolute in affirming, “the U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the right of all countries to determine their own foreign policy and alliances.”
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