Breach of Ukrainian Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity
The
screaming headlines, ‘Putin Invades Ukraine’, announced to the world on 24 Feb 2022
that Putin had finally gone ahead and shown the ‘will’ to bring to fruition his
pre-meditated plan; the capability had been assembled at the right places much
earlier. All along, Putin kept insisting that Russia would not invade; world
leaders denounced his amassing of troops on three sides of the Ukrainian border
with Russia/ Belarus/ Black sea and the sea of Azov; threats of economic
sanctions like “never before” were put forward; a large number of world leaders
met with him, and also a lot of diplomatic capital was invested in preventing a
war. Intelligence reports by the US indicated an imminent invasion. However, a
threat of invasion by a professional military on one side was sought to be
deterred through verbal threats by world leaders and by urging the world to
provide financial and military equipment assistance to Ukraine by the other
side. The UN Security Council proved ineffective in preventing an invasion.
Nothing could deter Putin from executing his plan. The universal principle of
international politics – that of respecting the ‘sovereignty’ and ‘territorial
integrity’ of other sovereign nations was breached, once again. The invasion
took place through the medium of air, sea and land, after Putin’s five am
announcement on television. A lot of violence has been unleashed on
strategically important military targets, with some civilian hits too, in the
past 33 hours with Russian soldiers closing in on the capital Kyiv. What led to
this situation?
The
Warsaw pact started to unravel in the late 80s with revolutions taking place in
the pact countries, including Russia. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in
1991 led to the end of the cold war and the economic, military, and political
weakening of Russia. Re-unification of Germany in Oct 1990 led to East Germany
automatically becoming a part of NATO; 14 other countries have been admitted to
NATO between 1999 and 2020, taking the present number of member countries to 30.
In 2008 NATO summit, it was agreed in principle that Ukraine and Georgia would
eventually be inducted into NATO. Effectively this has implied that a large
number of countries that were a part of the erstwhile USSR or Warsaw pact have
also been inducted into NATO. It is a fact that every country inducted has
exercised its right to choose what is best in its national interest. However,
it is also a fact that NATO is a political and military alliance. This implies
that offensive weapons, troops, and equipment are now being stationed much
closer to the Russian border, leading to insecurity in Putin’s Russia. Also,
the expansion of EU and NATO eastwards gives one a perception that Russia is
being systematically excluded from having a say, or influence in European
matters, and is being given a cold shoulder with regards to integration with
Europe. It is interesting to view Russia’s European antecedents.
Russia - Part of Europe
Russian
Federation, or Russia as it commonly known, is the world’s largest country,
which occupies a large part of Eurasian landmass towards the North. It is
unique in that 77% of its territory falls in Asia and 23%
in Europe. This 23% Russian landmass in Europe makes up almost 40%
of the total landmass of Europe. Russia has a total population of about 146
million, of which about 77% live in the European part. Almost all of Russia’s
largest cities are thus in the western part of the country, the most populous
being Moscow, St Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan and Rostov-on-Don are some
of them. Incidentally, the European part of Russia is slightly larger than
India. No doubt, Russia considers itself to be a European country on the basis
of its peculiar location, and population; not to forget that it was involved and
suffered in most wars on the continent, including both the world wars. Now that
Russia is involved in initiating another war on the continent, it is too early
to predict the likely outcome of the same, as the world leaders are still
mulling over their responses, beyond the immediate economic sanctions announced
by some countries. It is however undeniable that Russia violated the UN Charter
by violating the ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity’ of another member nation,
Ukraine. The breach of the UN charter is not new. However, this breach is
likely to have an impact on India; early trends indicate the following, as
analysed by the article in Hindustan Times of 25 Feb 2022.
War in Ukraine: Early Future Trends
Commencement
of Cold war 2.0, between the US and Russia, “after decades of a relationship
where distrust was accompanied with a degree of collaboration”; convergence of
Beijing and Moscow on the ideological theme of “opposition to the West and
their attempts to overhaul the existing architecture of global order”; churn and
revision in the “European assumptions about its strategic posture”, as well as
the US seeking from its European counterparts in NATO to take on “greater
responsibilities, financial commitments, and military obligations to secure its
eastern flank”; and lastly, the diminishing US mind share and focus with
regards to the Indo-Pacific and Quad, in the short to medium term. It is nearly
impossible to predict the future, as a variety of “imponderables” are involved,
and this is even more so in the early stages of this “war” in Europe. One thing
is certain that every war leads to loss of lives, human suffering, and has
unintended economic, strategic, and political costs. Every country had pleaded
for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, through talks, but it was not to be.
The Indian PM Modi was the first world leader to telephonically speak with Putin, after the
invasion took place. He once again re-iterated India’s stand of a peaceful
resolution to the conflict through “honest and sincere dialogue”; appealing for
an “immediate cessation of violence”; as also expressing his concerns about the
safety of Indian citizens, especially students, stranded in Ukraine.
India: Balancing Principles and Interests
India
is now in a very delicate situation considering its geo-strategic and
geo-political compulsions. It is trying to do a very fine balancing act between
“principles and interests”, as spelt out by the External
Affairs Minister S Jaishankar at the Munich Security Conference 2022. Principles
are worthy ideals, which are designed to positively serve every nation in the
long run. In keeping with this, the principles of “peace and security”, “sovereign
equality” of all nations, and “territorial integrity or political independence”
of all members are thus worthy ideals that are agreed upon by all member
nations of the UN, as per the UN Charter. However, the world is hardly ideal.
Hard power still continues to carry a large clout, as witnessed by India on
numerous occasions in its history, as also witnessed and is still ongoing, in
the war in Ukraine. Practical compulsions of meeting strategic national
interests always weigh in on the principles; this has been seen and practised
by all member states. India has no option but to be practical in the present
global dispensation, what with a belligerent and aggressive China deployed on
the eastern and northern border and a Pakistan sworn to ‘bleeding India with a
thousand cuts’ on the western border.
India and A Chinese Belligerence
The
Galwan incursion was a direct result of China violating the mutually accepted
and agreed principles; “not to bring military forces to the Line of Actual
Control (LAC)”. This happened after nearly 45 years of relative peace and
stable border management on the LAC. As per Indian External Affairs Minister
(EAM) S Jaishankar, the “relations with China right now are going through a very difficult
phase”, and understandably so, as the governing principles that ensured peace
with China have been breached unilaterally. The situation has only marginally
improved with 14 rounds of talks, but the process of dialogue is continuing.
However, the coming together of China and Russia in recent days has heightened
India’s security concerns.
Pakistan and its
Policies
Pakistan
has for long been pursuing a policy of state
sponsored terrorism. It is difficult for Pakistan to negate this policy as
long as the “military-intelligence apparatus” holds predominant power in
Pakistan. Negation thus demands a radical transformation in both the military
as well as the civil society/ politicians of Pakistan. Will it happen is the
question? The China-Pakistan “iron brother” relationship is also a matter of
grave national security concern for India. The ill timed visit of the Pakistani
PM Imran Khan to Moscow at the height of the Ukraine crisis adds to India’s
security concerns. A Russia-China-Pakistan axis would pose a grave threat to
India’s national security.
Russia – A Trusted
Friend
Russia
has been a trusted friend of India for over five decades, and has also been the
largest military equipment supplier to India. As per a SIPRI report, “about 23%
of Russian arm exports between 2016 to 2020” have been to India. During the
recent visit of President Putin to Delhi, for the annual India
Russia summit meeting, in Dec 2021, India and Russia signed over “two dozen
deals across a variety of sectors” and also signed a “10-year defense
cooperation pact”. The joint statement re-iterated India and Russia’s intention
to “upgrade
the defence cooperation, including facilitating joint development
and production of military equipment, components and spare
parts, enhancing the after-sales service system, progress towards mutual
recognition of quality control and regular joint exercises
of the Armed Forces of the two countries.” While the
relationship with Russia has been enduring for decades, standoff with China
over Doklam in 2017 prompted India to deepen its relationship with the US also.
USA and the Quad
The
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), on account of “shared or
converging values” between the USA, Japan, and Australia, was thus revived.
It is felt that Quad could eventually “develop into a significant one for four
countries who want to ensure that a rules-based order will prevail in the
Indo-Pacific region rather than a coercion-based one.” The joint statement at
the end of the summit level meeting in September 2021 highlighted the same. It
stated that “Together,
we recommit to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted
in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and
prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. We stand for the rule of law,
freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes,
democratic values, and territorial integrity of states.” On
principles, like all other member states of the UN, India too stands by rules
based order in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. However, how does the UN or the present
world order ensure a rules based order, when even the pleadings, threats, statements,
etc at the UN Security Council could not stop the eventual invasion of Ukraine,
and the violence unleashed thereafter? Did any country come to militarily
assist in countering the Russian military threat? The Ukrainian President
Zelenskyy lamented, “we’re
defending our country alone. The most powerful forces in the world are
watching this from a distance,” He stated that new packages of sanctions did
not go far enough. “Did yesterday’s sanctions impress Russia? We hear in the
sky above us and on our land that it’s not enough”, he surmised. What does this
imply?
Implications and India’s
Stand
Image Source: Google Images
It implies that when the chips are down, the principles enshrined in the UN charter, and agreed to by all member states are just worthy ideals, and cannot guarantee national security to each state. This does not imply that these ideals are not worthy; it just implies that in this less than ideal world, every nation has to practically seek its own security. Thus there will always be a practical need to find a balance between the ‘principles and national interests’; this is the practical key to the survival and national security of the state, in this less than ideal global order. The Indian abstention from the vote in the UN Security Council on 25 Feb 2022 was, in keeping with its practical geo-political and strategic realities, as they exist, a fine balancing act between its principles and its vital national security interests. The abstention was further amplified through an “Explanation of Vote”, which left no doubts on the principles involved in resolving the conflict, as agreed to by all member states. Russia was not named, but the Indian message was to remind it of the UN Charter, & also every countries obligations, as member states.
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