Narratives are Enablers
Major powers use moral or legal narratives to legitimise actions driven by national interests.
Regional Sensitivities Matter
US always reacts sharply to external powers in Latin America. Geography still structures power.
Energy + Alignment = Strategic Red Line
Resource-rich states aligned with rival blocs attract disproportionate pressure.
Sanctions Are Warfare, by Other Means
Venezuela shows sanctions can hollow out states over time, producing regime fragility without immediate conflict.
Credibility Defines Escalation
Once a great power commits publicly to regime change, backing down becomes strategically costly. Expect escalation not because conditions worsen—but because reputation is at stake.
Bottom line: Venezuela is a reminder that global order remains interest-driven, not rule-bound—a reality Indian strategy must internalise, without illusion.
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